A Look Back at the Julian Market: 2013 in Review
To start on a personal note, 2013 was the best sales year of my real estate career! As you can imagine, I was quite happy about that, especially given the unstable market conditions and the fact that 2013 was Orchard Realty’s first full year in operation.
As far as the overall real estate market was concerned, home sales in Julian and Santa Ysabel in 2013 were down 16% from the previous year, for a total of 84 houses sold. However, there was a significant decrease in distressed home sales in 2013, particularly in the second half of the year, which indicates that the market began stabilizing. By contrast, of the 100 houses sold in 2012, 26% were bank owned and 13% were short sales. In 2013, distressed home sales dropped 15%, capturing less than a quarter of the overall market compared to 39% in 2012.
Positive News in a Sluggish Market
In other positive news (in a generally sluggish real estate market), home sales in the second half of 2013 far exceeded the first half — by 14 homes. In addition, the price per square foot in the latter half of the year increased by 12%. Hence, while the sales were fewer overall compared to 2012, the dollars were greater, which is a sign of improvement as far as home equity is concerned.
Looking at 2014 so far, inventory levels are down with only 64 active residential listings for Julian and Santa Ysabel. Interest rates remain historically low with conventional mortgages generally fetching less than 5% interest. While it is still a buyer’s market, it’s certainly not a bad seller’s market. Because the distressed properties that brought the overall comparative home values down have mostly been sold off, equity is beginning to climb as the market continues to gradually rally. In the first quarter of 2014, 19 residential homes sold or were in escrow — a slightly slow start, but on pace to match 2013’s 84 homes sold.
Julian Real Estate Market Trends Past and Future
My hope is that this newsletter will keep your apprised of past and current trends in the local market. Feel free to call me for more specific information!
Breakdown of 2013 Home Sales by Neighborhood
Pine Hills—16 homes sold. The average home had 2BD/2BA, 1,687 sq ft and sold at $239/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 89 days for $406,000 at a discount of 3% under the list price.
Whispering Pines—8 homes sold. The average home had 2BD/1BA, 1,023 sq ft and sold at $207/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 57 days for $206,000 at a discount of 6% under the list price.
Kentwood—25 homes sold. The average home had 2BD/2BA, 1,223 sq ft and sold at $184/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 71 days for $208,248 at a discount of 7% under the list price.
Julian Estates—0 homes sold.
Harrison Park—2 homes sold. The average home had 2BD/2BA, 1,154 sq ft and sold at $189/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 22 days for $219,500 at a discount of 2% under the list price.
Lake Cuyamaca Resort –1 home sold. It had 2BD/2BA, 1,215 sq ft and sold at $239/sq ft. This home was on the market for 149 days and sold for $235,000 at a discount of 5% under the list price.
Cuyamaca Woods—2 homes sold. The average home had 2BD/2BA, 1,512 sq ft and sold at $217/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 6 days for $285,000 at a discount of 7% under the list price.
Wynola—2 homes sold. The average home had 3BD/2BA, 1,566 sq ft and sold at $228/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 46 days for $348,000 at a discount of 5% under the list price.
Wynola Estates—3 homes sold. The average home had 3BD/3BA, 2,225 sq ft and sold at $181/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 110 days for $383,000 at a discount of 4% under the list price.
Shelter Valley—6 homes sold. The average home had 2BD/2BA, 1,526 sq ft and sold at $102/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 123 days for $153,917 at a discount of 3% under the list price.
North Peak—1 home sold. It had 2BD/3BA, 1687 sq ft and sold at $157/sq ft. This home was on the market for 110 days and sold for $349,000 at a discount of 7% under the list price.
Santa Ysabel/Mesa Grande—3 homes sold with 1 over $2M! The average home had 4BD/2BA, 2,093 sq ft and sold at $429/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 136 days for $945,000 at a discount of 10% under the list price. (Excluding the $2M home, the average was 4BD/2BA, 1,639 sq ft and sold at $239/sq ft in 201 days for $442,000 at a discount of 12% under the list price.)
Hoskings Ranch—1 home sold. It had 1BD/3BA, 3,127 sq ft and sold at $351/sq ft. This home was on the market for 435 days and sold for $1,395,000 at a discount of 22% under the list price.
Julian Townsite & Outlying Areas Within the 92036 and 92070 zip codes—14 homes sold. The average home had 2BD/2BA, 1,562 sq ft and sold at $234/sq ft. On average, these homes sold in 148 days for $367,000 at a discount of 3% under the list price.
